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There's a storm brewing…

发布时间:2019-03-08 08:14:09来源:未知点击:

By Fred Pearce DROUGHTS and forest fires in Australia and storms lashing the Americas will become more intense and frequent, says a meteorologist who has recreated the vagaries of El Niño in a model of the global climate. Mojib Latif of the Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg added global warming to a new model that successfully predicted the 1997-98 El Niño. His simulation indicates that the average climate in the next century will become more like today’s El Niño-related weather (Nature, vol 398, p 694). There are two schools of thought on how global warming will influence El Niño. One says that heating the colder eastern part of the equatorial Pacific could create near-permanent El Niño conditions. Alternatively, warming could strengthen the ocean currents that keep the eastern Pacific cool in years without El Niño. Latif incorporated both processes into his model. He found that the El Niño state usually won, but La Niñas—in which cool waters cover the tropical Pacific—were violent when they did occur. “Models are not proof of what will happen,” he admits,